The March Endangered List
Five House members who may lose their primaries … DMN chides Hutchison for her light-on-issues campaign … Rasmussen shows Obama slipping

By Jason Embry
Austin American Statesman Blog

The March Endangered List
We kick things off this morning with my second list of the Texas House members who are most likely to lose their re-election bids next year. But so as to not confuse things too much, I’ve decided to focus the list on those who are in the most trouble in the March primaries. Once we get past March, I’ll turn to the general election, where, frankly, I think things will be a little more interesting this year.

I’ll count them down from least to most in danger. If you disagree, comment away.

(5) Rep. Leo Berman, R-Tyler. Berman is facing a challenge from former Tyler Mayor Joey Seeber. The former mayor must be taken seriously, but there’s not much activity from his campaign yet to discern from here. (UPDATE: Seeber dropped his bid today. So much for that.)

(4) Rep. Tara Rios Ybarra, D-South Padre Island. She captured this seat in the 2008 primary. Some of the local press published a story in August that took an unusual interest in the details of her personal life, although it wasn’t entirely personal — it involved a major campaign donor. Tough to know what effect that will have. J.M. Lozano is running against her in the primary. But as Paul Burka pointed out this year, he’s from the north end of the district, and the bulk of the votes are on the south end, and Rios Ybarra is from there. Plus, she’s been working all ends of the district very aggressively.

(3) Rep. Allen Fletcher, R-Tomball. Former Rep. Corbin Van Arsdale is considering trying to recapture the seat he lost to Fletcher in the 2008 GOP primary. Fletcher won that race by 800 votes (52 percent to 48 percent). But since then, Fletcher has been named one of the 10 worst legislators by Texas Monthly, and he did little to impress his colleagues in his first session. Here’s what the magazine said when it put the frehsman lawmaker on its list of the worst: “There are two things that even the rawest rookie must not do. One is to bring shame upon the body. This Fletcher did when he and several business associates became ensnared in a stock-manipulation investigation initiated by the Harris County district attorney’s office, which later turned the probe over to the U.S. Department of Justice. A federal complaint alleged that press releases quoting Fletcher and touting his political prominence had helped inflate the value of the stocks that were involved. (No charges are pending in the case.)”

(2) Rep. Al Edwards, D-Houston. Edwards lost his seat to Boris Miles in the 2006 primary, but thanks to consistently bizarre behavior from Miles, he was able to get it back in 2008. Now Edwards faces a challenge from Billy Briscoe, a young lawyer. Was Edwards’ comfortable win in 2008 a product of a better campaign and newfound affection in the district for him, or just a repudiation of Miles? We’ll see.

(1) Rep. Terri Hodge, D-Dallas. A couple of people I trust on these matters say I may have underestimated her popularity last month when I said she was the most endangered incumbent — and the idea that she’s far from dead was reinforced by Gromer Jeffers’ story in the Dallas Morning News on Sunday. Hodge has the backing of U.S. Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson and County Commissioner John Wiley Price. Still, she is awaiting trial on bribery charges — her trial is set for just after the primary — and the investigation that ensnared her has generated huge headlines for months. Her opponent, lawyer Eric Johnson, is working the district hard, has had a very successful start to his fundraising and has just captured the backing of District Attorney Craig Watkins.